Strategy (MSTR) Nasdaq 100 Removal Risk | December 12, 2025 Market Analysis

Will Strategy (MSTR) Be Removed from the Nasdaq 100? Risks, Market Impact & Latest December 12, 2025 Analysis

On December 12, 2025, analysts and investors are closely watching the Nasdaq 100 annual index reshuffle amid growing concerns that Strategy Inc (formerly MicroStrategy) — a company best known for holding large amounts of Bitcoin — may be removed from the index due to questions about its business model and classification.

Strategy was originally a software company called MicroStrategy, but in 2020 it pivoted to Bitcoin investing, becoming one of the largest corporate holders of the cryptocurrency. This shift has raised doubts among market watchers about whether it still fits the traditional definition of a technology company, which is the primary focus of the Nasdaq 100 index.

After a significant rally earlier this year that pushed its market capitalization to about $128 billion, Strategy was included in the Nasdaq 100 under the technology sub‑category. However, critics argue that its current model more closely resembles an investment fund or a cryptocurrency treasury company, rather than an operational technology business.

In the most recent quarter ending September 30, 2025, Strategy reported a net profit of $2.78 billion, mainly due to accounting changes that allowed it to book gains on its Bitcoin holdings. In contrast, its legacy software business generated only $128.7 million in revenue, highlighting how much its operating focus has shifted.

Despite this profitability, Strategy’s market value has since decreased to around $52.7 billion, and its share price has dropped 65% from 2024 highs and about 36% year‑to‑date — far outpacing Bitcoin’s roughly 3.6% decline during the same period.

Some analysts believe this structural shift makes it inappropriate for inclusion in the Nasdaq 100. Steve Sosnick, Chief Market Analyst at Interactive Brokers, has said that if Strategy is judged to be a holding company or cryptocurrency company rather than a software firm, it “is susceptible to removal.”

However, not all analysts agree on removal. Mike Colonnese of H.C. Wainwright has pointed out that Strategy’s market capitalization is still relatively large — larger than that of about 30 other current members of the Nasdaq 100 — which may justify its continued inclusion.

If Strategy is removed from the index, estimates from Jefferies suggest that passive funds tracking the Nasdaq 100 could experience roughly $1.6 billion in outflows, as exchange‑traded funds (ETFs) and index funds liquidate their positions in the stock. That could put further downward pressure on the stock price.

In addition to the Nasdaq decision, global index provider MSCI is also considering whether to drop Strategy and similar “digital asset treasury” companies from broader benchmarks. MSCI’s review is expected to conclude in January 2026, introducing another potential source of volatility and reclassification risk.

Nasdaq has not publicly commented on Strategy’s status ahead of the reshuffle announcement, which is expected after markets close on Friday, December 12, 2025. If any changes are adopted, they will take effect on December 22, 2025.

The case of Strategy highlights a broader issue facing modern equity benchmarks: how to classify companies that diverge from traditional operational business models and instead act as treasury holders of digital assets. The debate reflects ongoing market uncertainty about the proper treatment of cryptocurrency‑centric firms within major indices.

For investors, the potential reshuffle emphasizes the importance of understanding index methodology and the evolving criteria used by major exchanges and index providers. Passive and active investors alike should consider how exposure to companies heavily reliant on non‑traditional revenue streams, such as cryptocurrency holdings, could affect portfolio risk and market performance going forward.