Oil Prices Drop 2% as Global Supply Growth Looms – 29 Sept 2025

Oil Prices Fall 2% on Expectations of Global Supply Growth – 29 September 2025

Global oil markets saw a sharp decline on 29 September 2025 as crude prices dropped around two percent. The fall came amid rising expectations of increased worldwide supply, creating downward pressure on prices.

A key driver of the drop is the resumption of crude exports from Iraq’s Kurdistan region after more than two years. Exports are now flowing through Turkey’s Ceyhan port at an initial rate of about 180,000–190,000 barrels per day, with projections that volumes could climb toward 230,000 barrels per day in the coming weeks. This unexpected return of Kurdish crude has raised market confidence that global supply will outpace earlier forecasts.

At the same time, OPEC+ signaled a potential production hike for November 2025. Sources close to the group reported that member nations are considering adding at least 137,000 barrels per day to maintain market share. This anticipated decision has strengthened expectations of abundant supply and increased downward pressure on prices.

Benchmark prices reflected the shift. Brent crude slid 1.65 % to $68.97 per barrel, while U.S. West Texas Intermediate (WTI) fell nearly 2 % to $64.44 per barrel. The pullback follows several weeks of gains fueled by geopolitical tensions, marking a significant turn in sentiment.

Analysts caution, however, that geopolitical risks remain. Any fresh conflict or disruption in major producing nations such as Russia, Iran, or other parts of the Middle East could quickly tighten supply and lift prices again.

Market attention now turns to several key factors: the official OPEC+ production announcement, the scale of Kurdistan’s export capacity, U.S. weekly inventory data, and demand trends in major consuming nations including China and India. Even minor shifts in these indicators could alter price trajectories over the coming weeks.

For now, traders expect near-term pressure to continue as supply growth outweighs demand. But experts warn that any unexpected political or economic development could spark a rebound. The events of 29 September 2025 highlight how even modest increases in global production can have an outsized effect on oil prices and keep energy markets highly sensitive to both supply figures and geopolitical conditions.