AfD Wins in Eastern Germany as Merz Suffers Historic Election Setback
Germany’s AfD leads Mecklenburg-Western Pomerania as Friedrich Merz’s CDU suffers its worst state election result since 1949. Here’s what the results mean for Berlin, reforms and German politics.
Raja Awais Ali
9/21/20265 min read
AfD Wins in Eastern Germany as Merz Suffers Historic Election Setback
Germany’s politics have shifted rightward following the Alternative for Germany (AfD) finishing first in the northeastern state of Mecklenburg-Western Pomerania, while the CDU of Chancellor Friedrich Merz suffered its worst state election result since the founding of modern postwar Germany. The result has heightened pressure on Merz, whose government has been plagued with frustration over the country’s weak economy, high living costs and controversial pension, tax and healthcare reforms.
Merz called the result a “disaster” after the initial projections were released, but made it clear that he intends to stand as chancellor and continue with his reform programme. The election therefore represents a significant political setback for his government, but not an immediate change of leadership.
In Mecklenburg-Western Pomerania, the first ARD exit poll put the AfD at 37.0%, narrowly ahead of the centre-left Social Democratic Party (SPD) at 35.5%. Merz’s CDU was projected at 5.5%, only slightly above the five-percent threshold needed to enter the state parliament. Earlier projections had put the CDU below that threshold, at 4.9%, showing how closely the party was hovering around the level needed to secure representation. The final count and subsequent updates therefore proved critically important in determining whether the CDU would retain seats in the state legislature.
The result is particularly notable given that the CDU has traditionally been one of Germany’s central political forces. Its performance in Mecklenburg-Western Pomerania marked an unprecedentedly weak showing at the state level since 1949, while the AfD achieved its second first-place finish in a German state election this month. The party had already made significant gains in Saxony-Anhalt on September 6, where it came close to winning an outright majority. The latest result therefore adds to evidence that the AfD has established a much stronger electoral presence, particularly in parts of eastern Germany.
The AfD’s success, however, does not necessarily translate into government power. Germany’s established mainstream parties have maintained a political “firewall” against collaboration with the AfD and have refused coalition agreements with it. That means the distribution of seats among the other parties will be crucial in determining who can form a state government. The growing strength of the AfD is nevertheless complicating coalition-building, given that support is increasing among several parties.
The election in Berlin on the same day produced a different but equally significant result, with Die Linke (the Left Party) securing the largest share of votes, at 25.3%, ahead of the CDU at 19%. The AfD finished third, with 16%, while the SPD recorded 12.1% in the later results. The result marked a major setback for the CDU in the capital, where it had governed in coalition with the SPD, and marked the first time that Die Linke had topped a Berlin state election.
Housing costs were a central issue in Berlin, with Die Linke championing its pledge to nationalise private housing associations and potentially transfer around 220,000 housing units into state ownership. The proposal is politically and financially contentious: SPD officials have estimated the cost at about €20 billion, while a recent poll cited by Reuters revealed that only 37% of respondents supported the nationalisation plan. A 2021 referendum had produced a different picture, with 58% voting in favour of proposals to move large housing companies into public ownership.
Across both elections, economic concerns have been a major part of the political background. Germany has struggled with weak economic growth, with households facing pressure from energy, housing and other living costs. In Mecklenburg-Western Pomerania, voters also raised concerns about wages and the cost of everyday life. The issue has become particularly important for Merz given that he entered government promising to revive Germany’s stagnant economy through structural reforms.
His government has pursued changes in relation to pensions, taxation and healthcare, but these have generated political resistance. Merz has nevertheless argued that Germany needs to continue on the reform path in order to restore stronger economic growth. Following the election results, he said that the next stage would require determination, patience and political courage rather than a retreat from his programme.
The SPD has taken a somewhat different approach, with Vice-Chancellor and SPD leader Lars Klingbeil indicating that the government needs to respond more closely to voters’ concerns, particularly in relation to pension reforms. In Mecklenburg-Western Pomerania, SPD premier Manuela Schwesig benefitted from being able to present herself as critical of both the AfD and some elements of the federal government’s agenda. Her campaign highlighted issues that have particular resonance in the former East German state, including energy policy and Germany’s support for Ukraine.
Schwesig claimed opposition to Germany’s financial and military support for Ukraine had influenced some voters who shifted towards the AfD. She also pointed to continuing interest in restoring energy supplies via the Nord Stream pipelines that once carried Russian gas into Germany through the Baltic region. Schwesig had previously supported the pipelines before they were damaged in 2022, but later changed her position.
The AfD has built part of its support based on issues including stricter immigration policies, restoring energy ties with Russia and opposing some aspects of Germany’s current foreign policy. The party has called for tighter action against foreigners without a legal right to remain in Germany, and has advocated restoring Russian energy supplies. Its growing support has forced Germany’s traditional parties to tackle a difficult political question: how they can respond to a party that is gaining votes while refusing to cooperate with it.
The latest elections also show that voter dissatisfaction is not benefiting only one side of Germany’s political spectrum, with the AfD gaining ground in Mecklenburg-Western Pomerania, while Die Linke made major gains in Berlin. Reuters reported that voters were shifting away fromthe traditional centre-left and centre-right parties in both states, with economic uncertainty, housing costs and political dissatisfaction all contributing to the shift.
For Merz, the immediate challenge is therefore not the AfD’s rise but the fragmentation of Germany’s political centre. A more divided electorate makes it more difficult for established parties to build stable majorities, and increases the importance of coalition negotiations. In Mecklenburg-Western Pomerania, the distribution of seats means that forming a government is likely to require cooperation among multiple parties, while Berlin could also require a coalition involving Die Linke, the SPD and the Greens.
The results also have implications beyond the two states, with Germany being Europe’s largest economy and one of the European Union’s most influential political powers. Extended domestic uncertainty could complicate efforts to push through economic reforms and maintain a consistent national policy. Analysts cited by Reuters have warned that continued disagreement inside the governing coalition could make fundamental reforms more challenging to implement, and could prolong economic weakness. These are assessments rather than confirmed future outcomes, but they underline the political importance of the latest elections.
The AfD’s performance will also continue to draw attention to the party’s political “firewall”, with its growing electoral support not affecting the position of Germany’s major mainstream parties, which have continued to reject coalition cooperation with it. At the same time, the party’s repeated success in state elections means that other parties must compete in an increasingly fragmented political environment while responding to voters’ concerns over immigration, energy prices, economic growth, housing and Germany’s role in the Ukraine conflict.
For now, Merz has chosen to react to the setback by defending his reform agenda rather than altering it. The September elections do not by themselves determine Germany’s next federal government, but they provide a clear picture of the pressures facing Germany’s traditional parties. The AfD has strengthened its position in eastern Germany, Die Linke has demonstrated renewed strength in Berlin, and the CDU has suffered a historic state-level defeat. The political consequences will depend on how Germany’s parties respond to voters’ concerns and whether Merz can turn his economic reform programme into results that are visible to households across the country.
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